Some further statistics (again just for VK activators) – firstly, time since last activation:
This to me is a measure of how many ‘orphaned’ activators we have out there. Of all activators that have ever activated, over a third (36.5%) have activated something in the last 6 months. About the same percentage haven’t activated anything in over 2 years.
Some of those would have tried SOTA and not liked it, some may have been brought along for an activation and never got around to doing another. Some may have been active but fallen out of favour. I’m not aware of any SKs in the VK population at this point (touch wood).
Interestingly, there are spikes again, that seem to correspond to spikes in the First Activations graph from last post. This reinforces, to me at least, that these are likely of the “tried SOTA on the basis of an AR article, never did another one” flavour.
Next, we can examine the longevity of activators – how long between their first and last activations:
Five activators have stayed activating over a period of 60 months (5 years), and the reverse of that is 84 people (32%) have only ever been active for 1 month (likely a single activation).
Over half of activators have been active for a period of less than a year. Note that this is not the same as saying people are unengaged – an activator that only started 6 months ago but is still racking up activations will be in this cohort, but given roughly half of the cohort are in the 0 months bucket, it’s fair to assume that most in the cohort are no longer active in SOTA, and fit into the third of people from above that haven’t activated anything in over 2 years.
In the language of business (and customer engagement) this is called churn. People who buy a product or subscription then don’t renew their access to it. For a business looking to grow, churn is a problem because it means that any churned customer has to be replaced with net new business – and, on top of that, if they churned, you probably don’t have a promoter of your product out there!
The immediate question any business has to ask when confronted with churn is not, what do we do about it, but what is our expected, natural, level of churn. 90% stay with us? 50%? 5%? It’s never going to be no churn. Once you establish what your natural level is, then targets can be set, and we understand how many new customers we’d need to bring in to continue to grow.
Stepping out of the business world and back into SOTA, our current growth rate seems to be about 12-15 net new activators a year (from the last post). Our current retention rate (the inverse of churn) is at least 42% (107 active in last 12 months of 249 ever active). Note the use of the word “at least”, because that definition of retention is not strictly accurate. Our growth rate on 107 activators is therefore a bit over 10%.
So, in my opinion, if we want to continue to keep activity levels up, we need to concentrate on why people do one activation and no more, and, the question then is, how do we encourage those folks to stay active in SOTA, and, for those who have already activated, what would it take to get back into SOTA?
(Disclaimer: views are mine, not the MT’s, but I think you knew that)